Indian Economy Vs Global
Reason – “Lack of Emotion, Lack of Feelings, Lack of Human Perception”
Now coming to the Market – All these years…
- My Technical Chart Analysis Gurus in the market taught me
- Always Trade with Stop Loss (SL) – Capital Protection is Key for longer Survival
- Psychology is extremely important than Technique – If you take a Trade and it fails, Don’t try to immediately take Revenge on Market
- And my Fundamental Gurus taught me
- Always invest in Fundamentally Strong stocks
- Invest in Companies with Ethical Management & Corporate Governance
- Follow the company, review their books quarterly, have the PE valuations on mind….
- Present Day Corporate Behavior
- Apart from a handful of Large Groups like Tata and few others – are you 100% sure of Ethics on others?
- While one of Largest Group in India is perceived as Operator play, another Largest Group is perceived as Gobbling up other businesses and New Age Unicorns be it from the Ed-Tech, Fin-Tech, Women’s Fashion, Online Delivery and many others – came into IPO with huge valuations and now trading well below their IPO levels even now. The Craze that was there during IPO is gone just the very next day of Listing??
- And the New Age Corporate Governance follows the principle of “Yes we are 100% Ethical until proved wrong” and SEBI / RBI has been hunting & haunting them one-by-one
- Introduction to New Age Trading: Know Your Opponent (KYO)
- In the past decade – especially last 4-5 years, AI & Algo Trading has become so popular among New Retail investors and more than them Big FIIs and DIIs
- Gravita Research (backed by JP Morgan) is just one example which has huge crores and crores of funds to Play around and Manipulate the Market
- Now the Million $ questions:
- Who developed these Algo-Trading?
- Was it an Economy expert like Shaktikanta Das or Raghuram Rajan
- Value investor like Warrant Buffet
- Who developed these Algo-Trading?
- India’s ex-Big Bull Rakesh J
- Answer: None of the above – these were developed by some Coding Experts
- What was the intention of Algo-Trading?
- To identify Value stocks?
- To do value investing for long term?
- To invest for the benefit of the Company and be part of its Growth?
- Answer: None of the above – To make as much money as possible in Short Term thru every possible means of creating Panic and cheating Retail public
- What kind of Knowledge is being Imparted to the Trading Algorithm?
- Emotions or Chart Levels?
- Human Feelings or Numbers?
- To Show Mercy or To Make Money?
- Answer: The 2nd part (Chart Levels, Numbers, To Make Money)
- Even if you Invest / Trade only in handful of Ethical companies – is your Money Really Safe? Do these Algo-Trading Robots allow you Grow your investment peacefully?
- Answer: Most of these Big Organizations / Large Caps are F&O enabled. And F&O is the Devil’s playground because Trading Algorithms can manipulate price on both directions causing Fake Breakouts / Breakdowns which are momentary. These happens especially around Support / Resistances. The entire intention is to “Manipulate” retail traders Emotions, hit SLs on both sides (Buy & Sell)
So, if
- Our Opponent is Not a Human, Not having any Emotions, No Feelings, No intention of Value investing AND
- Corporate Houses are growing with “Money Making” as their primary objective AND
- Brokerages make their lot of money thru Transaction Charges – if you hold your stock for 10 years they get only 2 transactions in 1 decade (1 Buy and 1 Sell) – so they are bound to induce more transactions / day thru Panic selling. Now, do you really Trust on the Calls given by them Online / TV Telecasts / NEWS Papers etc.??
- So, what value are we really talking about if our own Broker has Dual intentions, Corporate Governance is being questioned, we have an Invisible Enemy without any Mercy/Feelings????
- It Takes a Thorn to Remove a Thorn – Likewise if your Opponent is using Price Levels, Chart Levels and other numbers – You need to learn Technical Chart Analysis to Confront your Emotionless Opponent
Now – let’s review the Relation between Global Economies Vs India. Why I keep iterating that India has become more and more Atmanirbhar? And not dependent on US economy…Despite the fact that we are just 3-4 Trillion economy compared to US & China having 25 & 15 Trillion respectively….
Excluding the “External” factors like Major Global Economies in Recession, Trade War with China resulting in China+1 Policy etc., let’s review the Internal Factors which are in control within India
Preamble of Constitution of India states “For the People, By the People, Of the People” – Now how is this related to the Present Day Market? Let’s do some Sector Analysis first
- Energy: Thermal and Hydro power production was never enough for the massive Indian population and India up until few years was literally at the Mercy of US to allow us to Import Uranium for Nuclear Domestic power production. But now, India is the Leader in Green Energy space across the entire globe. Be it Solar, Wind, Hydro or Hydrogen – we neither lack technology nor expertise nor investment. We are already selling power to other countries already
- Defence: From an Ever-Dependent country on the Defence space importing from US & Russia, India has transformed into a Defence Exporter having all necessary Technologies, Skills and Manufacturing – Thanks to Make-in-India Theme
- Space: Indian Space Technology advancements needs no further explanation with ISRO setting new benchmarks at Global level making big players Spell-bound and addition of Private sector adds more Lethal Ammunition to the pile
- FinTech: With the FinTech revolution in India -especially the UPI which is Global attraction now – India is attracting Global investments like never before
- Infrastructure: Infra development & Connectivity across the Country has never been so Tremendous since our Independence and we neither lack technology nor funding
- Railways: With the Railway modernization over 3000 new trains are going to be dissecting India in next few years the amount of investment growth potential is something never seen before
The growth in above sectors will have direct impact in sub-sectors like Steel, Cement, Realty, Telecom, Media, Manufacturing and many others….
Next – The Global Rupee – India has broken out of the $ System of Transaction on many of our trades – especially the most critical ones like Crude Oil imports dealt with direct Rupee instead of $ – the US is losing power of its Primary Weapon of “Sanctions on Foreign Economy”. We no longer are afraid of such sanctions and can trade freely
Given the Consuming Power of Indian Population – the development of the aforementioned sectors is Good enough
- For Primary consumption of Indian People
- Developed by Indian Manufacturing Companies
- Using Indigenous Technology of the Indian Experts & Scientists
Private Domestic Investments, Public investments thru Market & MFs has grown to never-before-seen levels that we are no longer dependent on Foreign Investments for anything. This is Directly Reflected in the Indian Indices – Despite relentless Selling by FIIs in 2nd half of 2023 and beginning of 2024 – the Indian Market made Newer Highs
The Domestic consuming power of India so huge that it can cushion out any Import / Export Restrictions, Domestic Investments can buffer FDI outflows, there is no shortage of Technology, Manpower, Skills / Investments. Then Why and How will Indian Economy be affected by Global Factors in this Present Age?
Given the Primary Focus of FIIs is to Make-Money – “Like Flies to Honey” they are attracted to Invest in Indian Market – Not to support us, Not because we requested them – but to make returns for themselves
